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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32225/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the S in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S22W05, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T19:38Z. This event is closely preceded by CME 2024-07-26T20:48Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. The front of this CME likely merged with two preceding CMEs and with the front of a faster following CME, forming one combined front.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T17:54Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.5 - 6.75
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 15.70 hour(s)
Difference: 5.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-07-29T07:38Z

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